dimarts, 28 de juny de 2016

COM SUPERAR EL BLOQUEIG


Després de les declaracions rituals de la nit electoral i dels primers posicionaments, que sempre comporten una descompressió accelerada per passar de la campanya a la realitat, ara toca encarar la gestió d’uns resultats que no faciliten la investidura, i menys l’estabilitat política.

La ciutadania i els mitjans demanen capacitat de pacte, per a continuació exigir als partits fermesa i fins i tot intransigència en la defensa dels principis i propostes de cadascú. Tot, alhora, és una mica difícil, especialment en un país on s’identifica pacte amb feblesa i on el sistema electoral ha fet innecessaris, fins ara, els pactes. L’acumulació i creuament de línies vermelles converteix l’itinerari del pacte en impracticable.

Després del 26J és prioritari recordar allò que ha estat ignorat després del 20D, la situació d’emergència social no permet perdre més temps. I això obliga a situar en el centre del debat d’investidura tots aquells temes que afecten les condicions de vida de les persones i que han estat absents de la campanya electoral.

Malauradament, avui, amb la millora de resultats del PP, estem en pitjors condicions d’encarar un canvi en les polítiques socials i en una solució per a Catalunya.

Les responsabilitats estan repartides, però tenen un element comú: haver posat la defensa dels mitjans per davant de l’objectiu dels fins. I haver obviat que les línies vermelles i els condicionants per pactar han de tenir certa relació de proporcionalitat amb la força de cadascú. Malgrat han augmentat les dificultats, no es pot tornar a oblidar que la prioritat és donar resposta a greus problemes econòmics i socials i a un greu conflicte institucional.

Tenim una Seguretat Social que és perfectament viable, a condició que s’adoptin urgentment mesures per garantir el seu finançament. La qual cosa precisa un major esforç fiscal, més justament distribuït en termes socials.  

Però la viabilitat a mig termini de la Seguretat Social depèn sobre tot de la capacitat de trencar amb la precarietat de l’ocupació com a estratègia. Una precarietat que provoca un deteriorament de la recaptació de cotitzacions socials fins i tot en moments de creixement de l’ocupació.

En l’horitzó tenim també una situació de dèficit i deute públic insostenible. El 2016 es tancarà amb un dèficit públic molt superior al pressupostat i amb un deute públic que ja supera el 100% del PIB. I amb l’exigència de la Unió Europea de nou ajust fiscal, que comportaria greus retallades en termes socials, amb el conseqüent augment de la desigualtat i la pobresa.

Aquest ha de ser l’horitzó, el de les condicions de vida de la gent, després d’unes eleccions que han guanyat el PP i Rajoy, però en el resultat de les quals no queda clar qui formarà govern i cap partit pot imposar les seves polítiques.

De moment, el bloqueig institucional, tant a Espanya com a Europa, agreujat per la crisi del Brèxit, està provocant que els únics guanyadors reals siguin els poders econòmics i un capitalisme financer que ostenta el veritable poder polític i que mai no havia tingut tan pocs contrapesos ni controls socials i polítics.

Les eleccions generals i el que passi al govern d’Espanya tindrà –ja l’està tenint– una forta incidència a Catalunya. Malgrat alguns, en una nova fuga cap endavant, pensin que ens podem abstraure del que passi a l’Estat espanyol. 

Tot apunta que el bloqueig institucional a Espanya arrossegarà també al bloqueig polític a Catalunya. Una situació enquistada i que dura des del 2010.

En la batalla per configurar i guanyar el relat post 26J i preelectoral a Catalunya, alguns pretenen instal·lar el debat de la irreformabilitat d’Espanya. I arguments no els falten, a la vista dels resultats. Però una cosa és la frustració real o impostada per la victòria del PP i l’altra que entrem en dinàmiques democràticament perilloses i políticament frustrants. Mai no ha estat cert que “com pitjor, millor”, encara que en el curt termini a alguns els vagi bé per consolidar el seu relat i preparar les futures eleccions.

Em sembla molt preocupant la proliferació de valoracions democràticament perilloses, que són utilitzades des d’anàlisis diferents i fins i tot interessos contraposats, però amb argumentacions igualment corrosives en termes democràtics.

Les idees de societats irreformables, pobles que es mereixen els governs que tenen, ciutadans que voten en contra dels seus interessos, acaben sempre amb perilloses afirmacions o insinuacions de “pobles elegits” i “pobles repudiables”.

És evident que la majoria assolida pel PP augmenta les dificultats per fer avançar una proposta de referèndum pactat amb l’Estat espanyol. Però no resulta creïble considerar inviable la proposta de referèndum i a continuació defensar que és viable i políticament efectiu un referèndum unilateral d’independència (RUI) o una declaració unilateral d’independència (DUI).

La meva experiència com a sindicalista, corredor de fons i amant de la muntanya m’ha ensenyat que, quan es detecta la impossibilitat de salvar un obstacle, el que fa no és augmentar la dificultat de l’objectiu i intentar superar-lo amb més obstacles i les mateixes forces.

A Catalunya tenim avui el repte i la responsabilitat d’escollir entre una nova fuga cap endavant o bé optar pel que ha fet sempre Catalunya en aquests moments, reagrupar el màxim de forces al voltant d’un objectiu compartit i augmentar la densitat i sobretot la intensitat de les mobilitzacions.

Cal recordar que una consulta unilateral ja es va intentar el 9 de novembre, i al final es va reconvertir en un procés de mobilització social davant la impossibilitat de  concretar la consulta unilateral.

Cal recordar algunes obvietats, com que un referèndum unilateral naixeria amb un dèficit de legitimitat pròpia en no comptar amb el suport d’una bona part de la societat catalana, que tindria enfront l’oposició de la majoria de forces polítiques espanyoles i el no reconeixement de la Unió Europea, que ja té prou fronts oberts com per obrir-ne un altre.

Els que defensen propostes unilaterals haurien d’explicar com, en els mesos transcorreguts de la legislatura de la desconnexió i la insubmissió del 9N,  han estat incapaços d’adoptar cap acció d’insubmissió, ni tan sols de fermesa, i ara de cop ens plantegen un RUI.

Hauran d’explicar com es compatibilitza presentar uns pressupostos absolutament submisos amb les regles de joc de l’Estat espanyol i al mateix temps defensar una convocatòria de referèndum unilateral.

Ens hauran d’explicar com faran conviure políticament un referèndum unilateral i una dependència absoluta del deute públic català de l’Estat espanyol. Com desconnectar-se políticament i al mateix temps estar endollat econòmicament a la respiració assistida del FLA.

Significa això que no hem de fer res? Evidentment que no, estic plantejant exactament el contrari. Tenim una situació de bloqueig polític, però no podem ni bloquejar-nos ni caure en el parany d’una nova fuga cap endavant. 

Aquesta és la resposta que haurà de donar el president Puigdemont en el planteig de la seva qüestió de confiança.

Un servidor opina que per sortir del bloqueig el que cal fer es reagrupar-nos al voltant de l’exigència d’un referèndum; intentar sumar als qui han plantejat la proposta de reforma constitucional, sense referèndum previ, i ara comproven que amb una majoria del PP això resulta inviable. I proposar a la societat catalana un augment de la densitat i la intensitat de les mobilitzacions.

I mentrestant, no oblidar en cap cas la situació d’emergència social que viuen àmplies capes de la ciutadania, que per cert són les que tenen uns majors índexs d’abstenció electoral i política. Per a moltes  persones, la utopia és una utopia més modesta i més quotidiana: sortir de la pobresa en la qual estan atrapades.

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